China’s steel sector has already entered a period of peaking and flattening out, said Zhang Guangning, chairman of the China Iron & Steel Association (CISA), at its annual meeting on January 12.

CISA officials have been cautious about putting a date on when production would peak. They have previously said it could happen by the end of the decade.

A peak in output in the world's biggest steelmaking country could rein in iron ore imports, which surged 14% to a record 932.5 million tonnes last year, and could also have implications for coal demand, which some expect to plateau before the end of the decade.

China's total steel capacity stands at around 1.2 billion tonnes but expansion has slowed considerably, with some analysts estimating that only about 10 million tonnes from new plants would come into operation this year.

The CISA estimated that Chinese steel output reached about 815 million tonnes in 2014, lower than its revised figure of 822 million for 2013.

Li Xinchuang, CISA's vice secretary general, forecast in December that Chinese steel production would rise to 834 million tonnes in 2015.

The country’s steel consumption was expected to increase 1.4% to 720 million tonnes, with growth slowing from 2.5% in 2014, said Li.

To survive the downturn, the steel industry needs to speed up its restructuring by slashing excess capacity, improving efficiency and switching to higher-quality products, said Zhang.