Hot debates on China’s cuts on coal imports have been going on in the market, with different views expressed on whether the country can slash 50 million tonnes of imports in 2014 compared to the previous year.

The target, set by the National Development Reform Commission in late August to support ailing domestic miners, would see the country’s coal import down to 277 million tonnes this year from 327 million tonnes in 2013.

Customs data showed China imported a total 242.99 million tonnes of coal in the first ten months this year, a decrease of 20.13 million tonnes or 7.7% from the same period last year.

That means the country still needs to reduce 29.87 million tonnes of imports in the last two months of the year, or down 47.1% from the same period last year.

This would reduce the country’s monthly imports to an average of 16.78 million tonnes in November and December, down 11.0% from August’s 23-month low of 18.86 million tonnes.

While agreeing it is a tough task, some industry insiders still see big chances for China to realize the target, given the flagging domestic demand and the government’s import restriction policy.

The overall demand would remain weak in the coming months, as utilities have high inventories and are reducing imports to fulfill quotas set by the government, they said. The levy of import tariff has also weakened the price advantage of Australian coal.

"The target seems achievable, as the 2013 import base is too high," said one utility source, adding it is in line with utilities’ reduction plans.

Others appeared more bearish, saying it is hard to cut imports by so much. "Large state-owned utilities are indeed cutting imports, but those unrestricted by the policy would continue to import coal, as long as the price is favorable," one trader said.

Recent increase in domestic prices may prompt utilities to import coal as well, sources said.

The Fenwei/Platts CCI1 Index for domestic 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal traded at Qinhuangdao port was assessed 5 yuan/t higher on week at 500 yuan/t on November 14, while the CCI8 price for imported 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal fell $0.1/t on week to $64.10/t, CFR south China ports.