Since 2009, China has changed from a coal exporting country to a major coal importing country. The coal import policy has gone through a process of “disliking” to “encouraging” and then “tightening” again. Prior to 2005, coal imports were hampered by import tariffs (6% of thermal coal, 3% of coking coal and anthracite); since 2005, import tariffs have been reduced, encouraging coal imports. Import tariffs were resumed after 2014, with 5-6 percent of thermal coal and 3% of coking coal and anthracite.

At present, due to the free trade agreement signed between China and the two countries, the import tariffs on coal in Indonesia and Australia are zero.

Liu Xinhua pointed out that in addition to import tariffs, strict quality inspection is also an important measure to control the import of inferior coal.

She said that before 2015, China has no mandatory requirements for the quality of imported coal. In 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission and the General Administration of Customs and other ministries jointly issued the Interim Measures for the Quality Management of Commodity Coal, which provided detailed technical requirements for the detection of radioactivity, impurities and environmental protection of domestic and imported coal.

However, since 2015, except for a small amount of coal from North Korea, Indonesia and Mongolia, which has been returned by customs, the overall coal import has not been seriously affected.

This year, the international seaborne coal market price has fallen, which has a significant price advantage compared with domestic coal. Therefore, the import policy has been adapted to local conditions, and the import restrictions on Australian coal have also been loosened.

In addition, import quotas are a powerful means of controlling imported coal. Since 2017, the government has strengthened coal import control and regulated coal imports by issuing quotas to customs and major importers. In principle, import quotas are based on the volume of imports in previous years and are adjusted according to the supply and demand situation of the year, but will not be disclosed to the public.

"If the government continues to strictly implement the import coal flat control policy, then in the fourth quarter, only 10 million tons of imported coal per month can be cleared, which is a 63% drop from the average of 28 million tons per month in the first three quarters," Liu Xinhua said. “Under the pressure of winter supply, this situation seems unlikely.”

According to the latest customs data, China imported 30.29 million tons of coal in September, up 20.49% year-on-year. In the first nine months, it imported 251 million tons of coal, an increase of 9.5% over the same period last year. The considerable price advantage of imported coal, the procurement of coal in the peak season and the diversified procurement strategy of domestic users are the driving forces for the rapid growth of imported coal.

Liu Xinhua expects that coal imports in the fourth quarter may be similar to the fourth quarter of last year, and will decline significantly compared with the third quarter, but will still maintain year-on-year growth.

“So far, the tightening measures for imported coal have not been as strict as expected, and some ports and users who have used quotas have obtained new quotas. Although the customs clearance time has been extended, it has not stopped,” she said. “Therefore, we expect that the target of coal import control this year is unlikely to be achieved. The annual import volume will exceed 300 million tons, and may even reach 320 million tons.”