With the advent of the heating season, a new round of peak-peak production has begun. As the first period of the three-year action plan to win the blue sky defense war, this year's autumn and winter multi-emissions industry's peak production plan has been separated from the previous one-size-fits-all model, and the regulations are more detailed and specific. ". At present, there is no obvious restriction on the start of steel and coke. In addition, enterprises are preparing for war ahead. This year, the probability of peak production and production is lower than expected.

In July this year, the "Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defence War" issued by the State Council proposed that by 2020, the total emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides will be reduced by more than 15% from 2015; PM2.5 will not reach the prefecture level and above. The urban concentration decreased by more than 18% compared with 2015. The ratio of days with superior air quality at the prefecture level and above reached 80%, and the ratio of severe and above pollution days decreased by more than 25% from 2015. In addition to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta region and the Yan-Ping Plain have also been included in key areas.

This year's autumn, winter, spring and spring seasons, all localities have won the goal of winning the blue sky defense war, the environmental protection policy has become increasingly strict, and environmental monitoring and law enforcement efforts have been further strengthened. It is required that by the end of October 2020, the iron and steel enterprises in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and the Plains of the Yangtze River will basically complete the ultra-low emission transformation. The new projects must meet the ultra-low emission requirements, which is much stricter than the “special emission” standards.

The current autumn and winter has become the first period of hard work, and the “regional version” and “local version” action plans have been intensively launched recently. The spokesperson of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment pointed out that this year's tackling action plan will focus on the high-emissions industry's peak production as an important measure to grasp the comprehensive control of air pollution in autumn and winter, effectively respond to heavy polluted weather, and promote industrial restructuring. The overall consideration is that more emphasis is placed on scientific policy and precise regulation. It is strictly forbidden to adopt a “one size fits all” approach and implement differentiated management based on the level of pollution emission performance.

Shandong Province's "Notice on Organizing the Implementation of the Autumn and Winter Differential Peak Production in Key Industries in 2018-2019" requires steel, coking, casting and other industries in Jinan, Zibo, Jining, Dezhou, Liaocheng, Binzhou and Heze cities. Peak production was taken between November 15, 2018 and March 15, 2019. Each city may extend or shorten the peak production time according to the air quality, but the peak production implementation time is not less than 2 months, and must include December 2018 and January 2019.

While the time is “flexible”, the regulations are also clearer and more specific. This shows that the amount of pollution emissions has become a “fixing star” for enterprises to stop production in autumn and winter. Recently, Taiyuan City, Shanxi Province, announced the “Action Plan for Comprehensive Management of Air Pollution in Autumn and Winter from 2018 to 2019”, which eliminated the unified production and production stoppage ratio for high-emission industries such as steel, building materials, coking, foundry, nonferrous metals and chemicals, and promoted the local conditions. Industrial enterprises have peak production, and differentiated peak production, avoiding simplification and absolute "one size fits all". At the same time, according to the prediction results of the monthly ambient air quality during the heating period, the peak production time is appropriately shortened or extended.

Hebei clearly, this winter and the next spring, for some production processes to complete ultra-low emission transformation, the end of the product enterprises, the peak value of 20% -30%; for the only pollutants emission standards, low-end enterprises, the peak 50% - 60%; the pollutants can not be stably discharged to meet the standards, do not comply with the current industry industrial policies, or fail to complete the task of comprehensive control of air pollution in the autumn and winter of 2018-2019, and stop production.

A person in charge of a coking enterprise in Hebei said that the capacity of the environmental protection policy was limited last year. After that, the company upgraded and made other preparations in advance. For the autumn and winter this year, the existing environmental protection facilities are relatively complete, with advanced production capacity and little impact on environmental protection policies.

It is worth noting that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding areas, which were restricted last year, were the main steel producing areas. The newly added 汾渭 Plain area this year is the main coke-producing area, and some coking companies are still difficult to meet environmental standards. According to the estimation of Haitong Coal, if the “26 2”, the plains of the Plains and the coke industry in the Yangtze River Delta are restricted by 30% this year, the monthly average output will drop by about 3.5 million tons, which is equivalent to a 10% reduction in monthly supply. 5% last year. At present, the environmental protection and limited production in the heating season in November has been gradually opened. In the specific announced areas, the overall production limit of Linyi and Luliang is above 50%, and some enterprises in Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province will gradually limit production by 30%-50%. On November 15th, heating will officially begin, the scope of production will gradually expand, and coke supply will be further strained.

However, Shanxi coking enterprises said that some coking enterprises in the local area have heating and gas supply tasks. At that time, the operating rate of some coke enterprises will be improved, or the supply of coke in the market will increase. Moreover, coke supply in other producing areas such as Inner Mongolia has not been affected. Winter heating and limited production may have a certain negative for the coke.